GH DP Fall 2019 Progress Thread

@Aaron_Yanofsky I haven’t checked it out in depth, I’ll probably give it a better look later today when I get off of work though.
There were actually a couple questions I reviewed where I was questionning the model solution (or didn’t understand it) so I’ll definitely be posting in the exam center soon.
Thanks for the encouragement! Really appreciated!

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So how’s everyone doing?

I can’t help but think that I’m setting myself up for a really great second attempt! I can’t help but think- next time I’ll read the manual and absorb everything! Maybe I’ll even read the manual twice! I went to the Mate seminar that was right after labor day, that was great. I am keeping to the schedule that I’ve set up when I started preparing in August, but that doesn’t mean much, it just makes sure that I don’t spend too much time on any one topic.

So I’m planning on finishing reading the curriculum (mostly the manual “outline”, syllabus sources when the need arises) and doing the applicable problems in 1-2 weeks. Then I’ll have 3-4 weeks to somehow review all of the curriculum and review as many problems as I can. I don’t know if it’ll be enough. I am now making the effort to write out problem solutions slightly more neatly and in a systematic way.

I’ve just finished watching all the study videos from TIA.
Now, I’m using their flash card app while reading the outline to supplement memorization with content.
I’ll also start doing some old exam questions.

I’m feeling good! I finally finished reading the outline and going though the past approximately 6 practice exams. (combo of 6 core and 6 advanced exams). I’m going to treat this as an accomplishment, regardless of what happens. I’m still going to spend another week at least on just learning objective 4 because I spent the least time on it and I want to give it its fair share of my time.

I am going to try to read the outline for a second time, but I’m not setting this as a goal. I am in awe of anyone that can read the outline more than once. Practice problems, both from exams and from mate, will be the priority for me (which does include referring to the outline as the need arises).

Wow you’ve made awesome progress! That’s great.

@birdnerd I was about to write the same thing.

Nice work @Barrel - I am just wrapping up my 2nd (shortened) pass through the outlines & plan on starting to review past exams while trying to memorize note cards throughout the next month. I’ve done this exact same thing to myself before, where I’m feeling very unsure about memorizing 340+ note cards in a month, but at least this time I have (for the most part) been through the DP-C ones before.

Hey everyone! How is everyone’s studying going?
So I just thought I’d drop a little insight here as far as spending time reviewing. Considering the exam is offered in segments for the next couple of years, they shouldn’t mix questions from A and questions from C (unless I’m missing something?). That means that Learning objectives 4 and 5 should be tested in the morning and learning objectives 1,2 and 3 in the afternoon.
So 60 points for LO 4 and 5, vs only 40 points for LO 1,2 and 3 so @Barrel, I agree to definitely give LO 4 it’s fair share of your review time. It’ll probably be worth point on the exam than let’s say LO3.
It’s my theory at least, I could be way off though…

I could not agree more about apportioning study time on old Core vs. Old Adv learning objectives. I’ve definitely been making an effort to prioritize 4 and 5 even though it’s less material. My attitude is that I have to assume that any math problem that can be conceived based on the material in 4&5 will be asked.

That said: I have just started going through the mate practice problems that pertain to the old core. 40% is not nothing. I’m going to stick with 1-3 problems for at least a week. The plan is to pivot back to 4&5 a week before the exam at the latest. If learning objective 3 gets no additional time- that’s just too bad. Sacrifices must be made.

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I agree. Having attempted Core before, I was already planning to spend more time on the DP-A material. And now knowing DP-A will be 60% of the exam points just reinforces my disproportionate studying strategy.

I’m still trying to solidify my understanding of some DP-A topics, after which I’ll go back to review some of the newer Core topics. I’m hoping my last week or two of studying can be a more realistic mix of the full DP syllabus.

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Curious of other peoples’ thoughts – I’m expecting something like the following distribution of exam points:

  • LO 1-2: 30 points or more
  • LO 3: 10 points or less
  • LO 4: 30 points
  • LO 5: 30 points

LO 1 & 2 are combined since they’re so closely related, and I’m just assuming they have to throw something in from LO3.

Anyone have any thoughts on whether LO 4 or 5 will be more heavily weighted?

All we know is the 60/40 split. Beyond that, you need a fortune teller! I think your breakdown is reasonable.

Actually 60/40 may not be that clearcut. Advanced assumes knowledge of core, doesn’t it?

I agree with your points distribution. altough I think LO3 could get up to 15 points since in the past few Core exams there were always 2 questions on that LO. I’m not expecting more than 15 points for LO3, and that’s really the most I think they could test from it.

I’ve seen a question where they actually combined LO1 and LO3 (GHC spring 2018 - question 11) although it was GHcore Canada, didn’t check to see if the same question was in the US version on the exam.

I’m expecting roughly the same amount of points for LO4 and LO5 as well. They’re about the same length in terms of pages, you can get calculation and “word” type questions from both so I don’t think one should really be tested more than the other, but at this point we are speculating

Good point, but I think that when they assume you know certain facts, it’s more like basic stuff that you probably knew before you took the exam (like coinsurance or things of that nature). So far, in all the previous Advanced exams that I practiced with, they only directly test the material from that syllabus, they don’t throw in a question from a prior exam because of the SOA’s recommended order.
Again we’re speculating at this point, but knowing that some people taking the exam will have passed C, and therefore will only be writing DP-A, I think it’s reasonable to assume the exams won’t overlap.
In 2 years though when the transition period will be over, anything will be fair game

I just took a look at that problem, and it is the same as Spring 2018 GHCORU #10. It seems like a good practice problem except for the inconsistencies in their setup & solution for part (d).

I’ve seen a bunch of questions that combine learning objectives 1-2 and 3. It’s more common that LO3 is combined with 1-2 rather than on its own.

I’ll still make sure to carve out time for LO3.

GHCore Spring2018 #10 part d:
I hate this problem!! It really would not occur to me to do the way they did it. I can sorta figure out what they did by playing around with the numbers but I really don’t get any of their choices. [I’m still off by a factor of 10, somehow!]

Why are they starting out with 2016 expected costs then dividing by 1.02 to get to 2015 expected costs?
This is how I’m sort of getting to (their) 2016 expected costs for females:
And I’m off by a factor of 10. Why?

Also I don’t understand how those are the 2016 costs. 2016 should have 40 females, not 55. And I’d expect to multiply by the 1.02, since the rates are for 2015 not 2016. I would also expect to make some assumption for 2017 demographics. And multiply by 1.02 again.

I really have no idea why they’re using 2015 and 2016 demographics and also how they’re going about it. Basically every step of this problem is a mystery!

I agree this problem is a mess, and they seem to have some errors in their work.

I think your 10x factor is coming from adjusting for 12 months (which they neglect to do) & retention (which they back out later, after combining the two years), as well as missing a year of trend. Your calculation (.63) * (50) * (55) * (12) * (.85) = 17,671.50 would then be 10x theirs (.63) * (50) * (55) * 1.02 = 1,767.15.

Their 2015 calculation is more straightforward even though it doesn’t make sense to calculate in the context of the problem (asking for 2016 & 2017), and is for some reason using 2018 membership… Anyway, 2015 expected cost for females = (0.63) * (50) * (55) = 1,732.50 – no adjustment for trend since it 2015, and retention isn’t back out until later.

Then the 2016 number is just 2015 with 2% trend, i.e. 1732.50 * 1.02 = 1,767.15.

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This is very helpful! I still hate this problem but I understand more what’s going on.

I see that the 10 factor is very close to 12*.85! Makes more sense now. Multiplying by 12 is still I think correct.

Why are they using the same demographic numbers for 2015 and 2016? It’s very clear that demographics changed.

I would still do this problem differently than solution:

  1. Calculate 2016 and 2017 expected cost rather than 2015 and 2016.
    2017 would be 2016 rate times 1.02
  2. Use 2016 demographics for 2016, and make some kind of assumption for 2017 demographics and use that for 2017.
  3. Adjust from monthly to year by the 12.

How are you guys doing on the memorization of qualitative lists, definitions, descriptions, etc.? This is really a struggle for me.
For example - I went through let’s say 25 flash cards yesterday. I was doing an old exam question that tested exactly on one of the “lists” and my mind was totally blank. So frustrating.

It is definitely a struggle for me too. Most of the time I can’t even tell when a card is being called on in a question, because the question will use different wording.

And then to make me feel even worse about it, the solution will have an entire paragraph written for each list item, which would take me like half an hour to write by hand for a one point question…